怪谈百物语

‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

A |     　　在持续火爆的AI交易势头中，美国知名投行Evercore ISI的分析师 Amit Daryanani认为，存储设备制造商、网络供应商和苹果公司未来将迎来强劲增长。    

    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

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B | 　　在给客户的最新报告中，Daryanani推荐了2026年下半年“最值得持有的六大人工智能（AI）股票”，其中包括存储设备制造商和网络供应商，由于今年以来在人工智能硬件方面的强劲支出，这些公司已经为投资者带来了丰厚的利润。　　具体而言，他指出，存储设备的强劲需求让他和他的团队对希捷科技和西部数据的股票未来上涨前景充满信心。　　Daryanani认为，随着存储产品供应持续紧张，希捷的定价能力有望进一步提升。该公司还拥有“两年的技术领先优势，并且这一优势还在不断扩大”，其Mozaic 3+硬盘存储平台已通过认证，并在主要超大规模数据中心投入运营。

C | 　　他还补充道，与此同时，Mozaic 4+平台正在与全球两大云服务提供商合作，加速产能提升。他表示，后续的Mozaic 5+平台预计将于明年晚些时候开始出货，并接受客户的认证。　　Daryanani表示，推理和智能体人工智能带来的数据生成加速，将进一步提振西部数据的股价。他还对西部数据计划在研发投入后将所有自由现金流返还给股东表示赞赏。

D | 　　今年以来，西部数据公司的股票上涨了170%，而希捷公司的股票上涨了207%。网络供应商　　另一方面，在数据中心网络供应商中，Daryanani和他的团队提到了线缆连接器巨头安费诺（Amphenol）、美国云网络和交换机巨头Arista Networks和思科系统公司（Cisco Systems）。

E | 具体而言：　　安费诺：在他看来，人工智能的需求、安费诺在扩大收购规模方面的优势以及其多元化的终端市场，使其有能力在今年及以后“跑赢大盘”。　　此外，该公司在铜缆和光纤AI连接器领域处于领先地位。因此，Daryanani表示，对于那些在铜缆和光纤组件之间犹豫不决的客户而言，该公司是“首选的连接合作伙伴”。

F | 　　而且，他还认为，安费诺不仅在人工智能领域，而且在其他领域也有机会受益，因为该公司还生产互连系统和天线解决方案，服务于国防和工业市场。　　Arista Networks：Daryanani表示，云客户群的多元化将对Arista Networks的发展起到推动作用，他预计该公司未来三到四年将实现“超高速增长”。他还指出，部分增长也可能得益于其面向企业的园区网络架构的上线。　　Daryanani还表示，网络领域的潜在市场总量应该会继续显著增长，而Arista Networks正在向规模化网络领域扩张，此时该领域对市场的影响也越来越大。　　思科：Daryanani认为思科在2027财年（始于 7 月）有增长潜力，因为网络更新周期可能会带来“第二波增长”，超出其此前预测的75亿美元人工智能收入（该收入已得到现有订单的支持）。

G | 　　Daryanani还表示，思科的Silicon One可编程网络架构由于其从芯片到系统设计的全栈方法，对博通的解决方案具有“相当大的”竞争机会。苹果公司　　最后，Daryanani和他的团队也对苹果公司的产品和功能路线图持乐观态度。他表示，iPhone的生命周期“依然具有吸引力”。　　“被压抑的需求、iPhone 18 Pro的上市周期以及预计的折叠屏手机发布，应该会支撑需求和（平均售价），尤其是在基础款iPhone 18延迟发布的情况下。”他补充道。　　Daryanani表示，尽管一些投资者对苹果智能技术和人工智能驱动的Siri持怀疑态度，但这些功能的成功实施“可能会延长iPhone的生命周期，推动升级换代，并解锁新的盈利机会”。随着对AI工具的需求不断增长，Daryanani认为，苹果未来可能会找到更多从中获利的方式。

H | 　　他还指出，尽管苹果应用商店面临压力，但其服务业务在过去12个季度仍保持了两位数的增长。他认为这对苹果的毛利率是一个利好因素。在他看来，该公司通过分红和股票回购返还约90%的自由现金流，并优先考虑股东利益，这也是一个积极的因素。（文章来源：财联社）。

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